Food for Thought: The Protein Transformation (Blue Horizon)

Summary

• By 2035, alternative proteins are expected to account for at least 11% of global protein consumption, with upside scenarios reaching 16% or 22% based on technology advances and regulations.p.13
• Plant-based alternative proteins are expected to achieve parity in taste, texture, and price with conventional proteins by 2023, microorganism-based proteins by 2025, and animal-cell-based proteins by 2032.p.8
• Shifting to plant-based meat and eggs alone is estimated to save over 1 gigaton of CO2-e by 2035, equivalent to Japan going carbon neutral for a year, as well as 39 billion cubic meters of water.p.9
• Asia-Pacific is expected to become the largest regional market for alternative proteins, representing two-thirds of global consumption by 2035.p.15
• Reaching base-case market estimates will require up to $30 billion in capital investments for bioreactor capacity and up to $11 billion for extrusion capacity.p.33

Key insights

1. Nine out of ten of the world's favorite regional dishes will have a realistic alternative protein substitute by 2035.p.5
2. By 2035, the transition to plant-based alternatives will free up over 240,000 square kilometers of farmland, an area equal to the size of the UK.p.9
3. Milk and dairy substitutes are projected to remain the largest product category of alternative proteins through 2035, while chicken and seafood alternatives will expand rapidly.p.15
4. Optimizing extraction processes and scaling texturizing capacity present the highest value creation opportunities for plant-based alternative proteins.p.21
5. Microorganism-based proteins currently face production costs two to three times higher than conventional proteins, requiring improvements in metabolic efficiency and low-cost feedstocks.p.24
6. Cultured meat production costs remain an order of magnitude above conventional meat, with growth media cost reductions serving as the primary lever to reach parity.p.26
7. Favorable regulatory environments and carbon taxes could lead to peak conventional meat consumption in Europe and North America as early as 2025.p.30
8. A survey of investment professionals found that 85% incorporate ESG criteria into their decision-making processes.p.33