Fintech Outlook 2025 (Portage)

Summary

• Consumer fintech funding exhibited a divergent recovery in 2024, with total venture capital investment rising 55% year over year while seed-stage funding declined 18%.p.7
• Small and medium-sized businesses comprise 95% of businesses worldwide (99% in the U.S. and Canada) and generate over 60% of jobs, creating over 2 million U.S. jobs annually.p.10
• The private asset and alternative investment market is projected to reach $30 trillion in assets under management by 2029, driven by high-net-worth demand and retail access.p.14
• Stablecoins reached mainstream adoption with global transaction flows exceeding $27 trillion in 2024, outpacing the combined volume of Visa and Mastercard.p.16

Key insights

1. Diverging regulatory environments between Europe's stricter consumer rules and the U.S. curtailment of the CFPB are reshaping banking and lending models.p.5
2. Large language models and AI agents are positioned to serve as low-cost automated financial advisors and concierges across consumer finance.p.8
3. European SMB owners spend an estimated 40% of their time on administration and financial management, creating demand for AI-driven tax and accounting automation.p.10
4. Insurers pulling back from climate-affected catastrophe zones are expanding opportunities for Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines and specialized risk transfer platforms.p.13
5. Turnkey asset management programs (TAMPs) are expected to grow at a 10.8% CAGR through 2033 as registered investment advisors increasingly outsource management functions.p.14
6. Payment commoditization is prompting providers to monetize data and embed financial services directly into vertical SaaS platforms.p.18