2025 Outlook Report (Union Square Advisors)

Summary

• Global technology M&A volume reached $288B in 2024, up 9% Y/Y from $264B in 2023.p.6
• Total debt issuance across all products reached ~$1.4T in 2024, making it the strongest year for debt issuance since 2021.p.10
• US institutional loan volume in the syndicated market surpassed $500B by year-end 2024, a 113% increase from 2023.p.11
• Secondary market transaction volume expanded to ~$150B in 2024 from $110B in 2023, driven by GP-led transactions.p.14
• The US e-commerce market reached over $1.2T in 2024 and is projected to reach $1.7T by 2028, representing a 9% CAGR.p.19
• The global governance, risk and compliance software market surpassed $50+B in size, growing at a ~14% CAGR through 2030.p.21

Key insights

1. Large tech M&A deals over $1B increased by 17% in 2024 compared to the prior year.p.7
2. Refinancings and repricings accounted for over 44% of total private credit volume in 2024.p.10
3. Single-asset continuation funds represented 48% of total GP-led secondary transaction volume in 2024.p.14
4. The number of artificial intelligence models put into production by enterprises increased 11x during 2024.p.17
5. Public vertical software companies comprise over $800B in market capitalization, representing approximately 30% of the public software universe.p.24
6. AI-driven technologies represented ~35% of all logistics technology M&A transactions in 2024.p.32