Market Overview 2026 (Hamilton Lane)

Summary

• The 2020-2022 vintage cohort represents 40% of the current private markets NAV.p.27
• Over 50% of deal value in the global venture world is going into AI-oriented deals.p.19
• Private credit has outperformed its public benchmark every year for the last 24 years.p.53
• Evergreen private credit total AUM has scaled to >$500B.p.71
• Private credit LBO spreads stood at 498 bps in 2025 YTD, compared to 351 bps for broadly syndicated loans.p.73
• The time to deploy capital overhang across all private markets averages 2.8 years.p.93

Key insights

1. Over 50% of deal value in global venture capital is directed toward AI-oriented transactions as of Q4 2025.p.19
2. The 2020-2022 fund vintage cohort accounts for 40% of the current private markets Net Asset Value.p.27
3. Strategic buyers represent 54% of expected portfolio company exit routes in the next 12 months according to general partners surveyed.p.36
4. Private credit has delivered superior returns over its public benchmark in every single vintage year for 24 years.p.53
5. Across historical deal vintages, an average of 20% of realized buyout deals suffer capital losses.p.58
6. Evergreen private credit vehicles have expanded dramatically to exceed >$500B in total AUM.p.71
7. In 2025 YTD, private credit LBO spreads averaged 498 bps versus 351 bps for broadly syndicated loans.p.73
8. GP-led transactions continue to represent roughly 50% of total secondary market volume.p.84
9. Companies involved in GP-led continuation vehicle transactions had achieved an average asset MOIC of 4.0x prior to the transaction.p.87