2024 Outlook Report (Union Square Advisors)

Summary

• Since 2007, Union Square Advisors has advised on more than 175 transactions with a total transaction value exceeding $120 billion.p.3
• Global technology M&A volume fell 50% in 2023 to $264B compared to $526B recorded in 2022.p.6
• The private credit market reached $1.5 trillion in total size, pricing $128 billion in volume during 2023.p.10
• The U.S. behavioral health market size was estimated at $80B in 2022 and is projected to grow to $115B by 2030 at a CAGR of 4.7%.p.18
• Generative AI startups attracted $25 billion in investment across 475+ companies throughout 2023.p.27
• U.S. supply chain startup funding dropped to ~$1B in 2023, representing less than 20% of the total capital raised in 2022.p.28

Key insights

1. Tech M&A volume experienced a 50% drop to $264B in 2023 from $526B in 2022 due to elevated interest rates and market volatility.p.6
2. Preqin projects the private credit market to expand from $1.5 trillion to over $3.0 trillion by 2028.p.10
3. Growth equity deal volume surpassed LBO volume in early 2023, supported by the predominantly all-equity transaction structures.p.12
4. Large biopharma companies experienced a decline in R&D ROI from ~10% in 2010 to ~2% in 2018 and beyond.p.24
5. More than 30 new cell and gene therapies are projected to launch by 2027.p.24
6. ChatGPT reached an estimated 100 million users in 2 months, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history.p.26
7. McKinsey & Co. projects Generative AI to grow at a CAGR of 42% from 2022 to 2032, reaching $1.3 trillion.p.27