MSCI Private Capital Benchmarks Summary Q2 2026 (MSCI)

Summary

• Venture capital delivered its strongest quarterly return in five years (+12.7%) in Q2 2026, while buyout improved by 2.5% after a -1.1% Q1.p.7
• The broader private-equity index gained 5.6% versus more than 15% for global public equities.p.7
• Natural resources (+60%) and infrastructure (+56%) remain the strongest five-year compounders, while private real estate is barely positive at +4%.p.8
• Net cash flows for all private capital totaled USD 22.9 billion through H1 2026, after a USD 101.1 billion shortfall in 2024.p.12
• The private equity distribution rate was just 9% in H1, and net cash flows in private equity were USD -16.5 billion.p.13

Key insights

1. Venture capital's five-year cumulative gain of 25% trails buyout and the public MSCI World Small Cap Index (+49%).p.8
2. In the 2,617 IPO exits examined, one in four positions returned close to nothing for two years afterward.p.3
3. Venture outperformed buyout in communication services (35% vs. 3%) and information technology (16% vs. -4%) holdings in H1 2026.p.10
4. The distribution rate remains roughly 10-11%, far below the historical average of around 20%.p.12
5. The MSCI dataset covers 15,500+ funds and USD 13 trillion+ in capitalization.p.5
6. Private infrastructure (+2.5%) outperformed its public counterpart, which fell 2.2%.p.7