MSCI Private Capital Benchmarks Summary Q1 2026 (MSCI)

Summary

• Venture capital posted a 5.3% return in Q1 2026, while buyout slid to -1.0% and expansion capital to -0.3%.p.7
• The private credit return for the quarter was 1.1%, with opportunistic lending at 2.6% and direct lending at 0.3%.p.7
• Natural resources (+60%) and infrastructure (+57%) are the strongest five-year compounders, with corporate lending at +47%.p.8
• Median buyout exit multiples tracked at 13.7x EBITDA in early Q1 2026, while entry multiples softened to 10.5x from 11.5x.p.11
• Q1 2026 net cash flow was USD -14 billion, with a distribution-to-contribution ratio of 0.9 and a distribution rate of 10%.p.12
• Dry powder in global private capital fell to USD 1.98 trillion in Q1 2026, or 19.3% of total capitalization.p.14

Key insights

1. Venture capital's five-year cumulative return of +20% trails the MSCI World Small Cap Index (+27%), while buyout stands at +40%.p.8
2. Private equity net cash flows were USD -26 billion in Q1, with a distribution-to-contribution ratio of 0.8.p.13
3. The credit dry powder figure of USD 302 billion likely understates available capital.p.14
4. Dry powder peaked at USD 2.15 trillion in early 2024.p.14
5. MSCI acquired PM Insights, whose data covers private-company securities representing more than USD 5.5 trillion in estimated market capitalization.p.3
6. In VC, IT returned 4% for the quarter, while buyout IT holdings returned -5%.p.10