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Leaning Into the Turbulence: Private Equity Midyear Report 2025 (Bain & Company)

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ReportBain & CompanyJanuary 202512 pages18 min readOriginal source
Key number
$1.2 trillion
Buyout dry powder available p.5
Largest segment
$3.3 trillion
Capital sought by private capital funds on the road p.8

Summary

  • The first quarter of 2025 featured notable transactions, including Sycamore Partners' $23.7 billion acquisition of Walgreens Boots Alliance and GTCR's sale of a majority stake in Worldpay for $24.25 billion.p.3
  • Momentum slowed in April 2025, with announced deal value falling 24% below the first-quarter monthly average and deal count dropping 22%.p.3
  • Private equity firms face significant dry powder pressure, with $1.2 trillion in buyout dry powder waiting to be deployed.p.5
  • Distributed to paid-in capital ratios for 2018 vintage US and Western European funds stand at slightly over 0.6x, well below the historical benchmark of approximately 0.8x.p.6
  • Institutional investors are utilizing secondary transactions for liquidity, highlighted by New York City pension systems completing a $5 billion secondary sale in May.p.7
  • The private capital fundraising market faces a supply-demand imbalance, with over 18,000 funds seeking $3.3 trillion, representing roughly $3 of demand for every $1 of supply.p.8

Key insights

  1. Early second-quarter dealmaking and exit activities decelerated as market participants assessed short- and long-term tariff implications.p.3
  2. Nearly one-quarter of the $1.2 trillion in buyout dry powder has remained uninvested for four years or longer.p.5
  3. More than 60% of surveyed LPs prefer traditional full exits over dividend recapitalizations, even if it requires accepting valuations below recent marks.p.6
  4. The secondaries market accounts for less than 5% of global private equity assets under management.p.7
  5. None of the buyout funds that closed in the first quarter of 2025 exceeded $5 billion, a threshold unbroken for a decade.p.7
  6. Survey results show 28% of LPs plan to increase private credit allocations and 20% plan to increase infrastructure allocations amid trade volatility.p.8
  7. 3G Capital announced the acquisition of Skechers for over $9 billion shortly after the company withdrew financial guidance.p.9

Funders mentioned

Sequoia CapitalSilver Lake

Topics and entities

GlobalInfrastructure investmentIPOs and listingsM&A and exitsPrivate debt and venture debtPrivate equityPrivate marketsStartup fundingVenture capital3G CapitalBain & CompanyBlackstoneChina Investment CorporationGlobal PaymentsGTCRKlarnaMubadalaSkechersSycamore PartnersWalgreens Boots AllianceWorldpay

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