H2 2026 Private Markets Outlook (New York Life Investments)

Summary

• Global secondaries volumes reached a record $121 billion in the first half of 2026.p.9
• Private equity distributions in 2025 were equivalent to approximately 13% of net asset value, compared with a long-term average of approximately 20%.p.9
• Institutional private credit fundraising is up 33% year-over-year through the first half of 2026 and is on pace for a record year.p.13
• Private markets are expected to be a key financier of the $2.9 trillion global data center buildout.p.7
• Institutional investors' target allocations to infrastructure have reached 6.2% in 2026.p.19
• Germany recently launched a €500 billion fund to modernize transportation, energy, digital and other critical infrastructure over the next decade.p.19

Key insights

1. Secondaries volumes reached a record $121 billion in the first half of 2026, making liquidity itself a source of value in a slower exit environment.p.9
2. Private equity distributions in 2025 were approximately 13% of NAV versus a long-term average of approximately 20%.p.9
3. The lower middle market generated annual distributions equivalent to nearly 20% of NAV, helped by a broader buyer universe and less reliance on IPO markets.p.9
4. Institutional private credit fundraising is up 33% year-over-year in the first half of 2026 even as non-traded BDCs have seen outflows.p.13
5. Private markets are expected to play a key role in financing the $2.9 trillion global data center buildout.p.7
6. Institutional target allocations to infrastructure rose more than one percentage point since 2023 to 6.2% in 2026.p.19
7. The outlook favors the middle and lower middle market in private equity and private credit, where there is less competition and lower leverage.p.3