Monetary Policy Report November 2026 (Bank of England)
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Bank of EnglandSummary
- The MPC voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%; one member voted for an increase of 0.5 percentage points to 4.25%.p.5
- UK CPI inflation increased to 3.5% in September and is expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year.p.5
- CPI inflation has risen from 2.6% in June to 3.5% in September; diesel and petrol pump prices are around 40% and 30% higher than before the conflict.p.9
- Household utility bills and motor fuel prices accounted for around 60% of the overshoot of CPI inflation relative to the 2% target in September.p.9
- Services consumer price inflation rose to 3.7% in September.p.12
- UK wholesale gas futures were around 65% higher than ahead of the July Report and around 120% above their level before the February Report.p.14
- The Ofgem price cap rose to £1,723 in 2026 Q4 from £1,663 in Q3, and is expected to increase to around £2,150 in 2027 Q1.p.15
Key insights
- September inflation was 0.4 percentage points higher than anticipated in the July Report.p.9
- Measures of underlying services price inflation have been flatter over recent months at around 4%.p.12
- Oil futures were around 70% higher than in the run-up to the February Report.p.14
- Direct energy effects are projected to contribute around 1.4 percentage points to CPI inflation in 2027 Q1.p.15
- Inflation is expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027 before falling back towards the 2% target.p.7
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