The Year Ahead 2027 Report: From Resilience to Growth (Banco Santander)

Summary

• Global growth is projected to average 3.3% per year over the next three years, compared with 3.7% during the first two decades of this century.p.10
• Around 60% of the slowdown can be attributed to Europe's lower contribution to global growth.p.10
• Euro area growth is expected to accelerate from 1.0% in 2026 to 1.4% in 2027.p.11
• Spanish growth is expected to moderate from 2.6% to 2.2%, and UK growth to slow from 1.3% to 0.9% in 2027.p.11
• There is a global financing gap of 30 trillion euro between 2026 and 2030.p.12
• By the mid-2030s the number of people aged 80 or over is projected to reach around 265 million, outnumbering infants for the first time.p.6
• US unemployment stood at close to 5% in mid-2026, and inflation will end 2026 close to 4%.p.18

Key insights

1. One year after past supply shocks, GDP slowed by an average of 1.7 percentage points and inflation accelerated by 0.8 points.p.15
2. Equity markets are at record peaks while central banks tighten and long-term bond yields reach multi-year highs.p.16
3. The US economy will remain the main engine of developed-world growth in 2027, with expansion above 2%.p.11
4. Inflation in most regions should begin to ease gradually from 2027 and converge to central bank targets from 2028.p.16
5. Faster growth requires more investment, and sustained investment requires financing.p.7
6. Mexico's inflation should stay at around 4%, with unemployment close to record lows.p.19