Monetary Policy Report April 2026 (Bank of England)

Summary

• The MPC voted 8–1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%; one member voted to increase it to 4%.p.5
• CPI inflation increased to 3.3% and is likely to be higher later this year as higher energy prices pass through.p.5
• Brent front-month oil futures averaged $100 a barrel in the 15 working days to 22 April, up from $64 before the February Report, after peaking at $119 on 31 March.p.13
• In Scenario C, inflation peaks at over 6% at the start of 2027.p.8
• Underlying GDP is estimated to have grown 0.2% in 2026 Q1, while headline GDP growth is expected at 0.5%.p.20
• The LFS unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, and staff project 5.1% in 2026 Q2.p.24
• Approximately 25% of seaborne oil normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed since 28 February.p.28

Key insights

1. CPI inflation was 0.3 percentage points higher than expected at the time of the February Report.p.10
2. Consumer food price inflation is expected to rise to 4.6% by September 2026.p.15
3. Underlying services inflation measures were around 4% to 5% in the three months to March.p.16
4. The median MaPS respondent expected CPI inflation of 2.8% one year ahead, compared with 2.2% in the February survey.p.17
5. Annual private sector regular AWE growth was 3.2%, down from around 6% at the start of 2025.p.18
6. Real income is projected to fall by 0.5% in the year to 2026 Q2, with the household saving ratio falling to 9.1%.p.22
7. Business investment is expected to fall by 0.6% in 2026 H1.p.23
8. The market-implied path for Bank Rate rises to 4.2% in early 2027 before falling to 4% by early 2028.p.29