German Venture Capital Barometer Q3 2025 (KfW)

Summary

• The VC business climate indicator rose by 18.5 points to -0.3 points in the third quarter of 2025, making up for the slump of the previous quarter.p.1
• The indicator for the current business situation climbed by 11.1 points to -11.9 points.p.1
• The indicator for business expectations jumped by 25.9 points to 11.3 points.p.1
• The interest rate climate indicator lost 17.8 points to -42.1 points.p.2
• The indicator for willingness to invest fell by 7.4 points to -15.7 points.p.2

Key insights

1. The fundraising climate picked up clearly again and the exit climate also improved, while willingness to invest fell and entry valuations rose.p.1
2. The expectations traffic light turned green, so the assessment now lies in the upper range.p.1
3. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts, while the US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate for the first time this year.p.2
4. VC funds increasingly sell stakes to specialised secondary funds or set up continuation funds to generate returns for their investors.p.2
5. Investors perceived a declining deal flow, and German investors took part less often in the deals observed in the market.p.2
6. KfW chief economist Dirk Schumacher said US tariff policy had caused a phase of uncertainty among German VC investors that now appears to be over.p.3