Venture Capital Market Trends 2026 (KfW)

Summary

• The German venture capital market reached an investment volume of about €7.2 billion in 2025 and remained stable despite macroeconomic challenges.p.1
• Climate tech investment peaked at about €2.4 billion in 2024 and fell to €1.3 billion in 2025.p.3
• 91% of surveyed VC investors forecast high or very high growth opportunities for AI in 2026.p.3
• E-commerce investment fell again in 2025, by 41% to €690 million.p.4
• Nuclear fusion had a 4% share of German VC investment, higher than its share of under 1% of the global VC market.p.4

Key insights

1. Artificial intelligence was again the central growth driver in 2025, while Dual Use / Defense and cybersecurity technologies also grew significantly.p.1
2. Climate technologies recorded a clear decline in investment in 2025 after a record high in 2024.p.1
3. Over the medium term, saturation and a slowdown in investment growth in AI are expected given the high sums already invested.p.3
4. E-commerce reached a 44% market share of VC investment in 2021 and has since declined as the market matures.p.4
5. Quantum technologies rank fifth among investor growth expectations for 2026.p.4
6. Expectations for fintechs, mobility/logistics and e-commerce were more pessimistic than the VC investment that actually took place.p.5