German Venture Capital Barometer Q4 2025 (KfW)

Summary

• German venture capital sentiment fell sharply to -32.4 points in the fourth quarter of 2025.p.1
• The current business situation indicator fell by 25.9 points to -37.5 points.p.1
• The business expectations indicator plunged by 38.9 points to -27.4 points.p.1
• Fundraising sentiment dropped by 28.7 points to -34.2 points.p.2
• The indicator for entry valuations surged by 23.0 points to 10.1 points.p.2
• Satisfaction with valuation adjustments fell by 9.8 points to -12.4 points.p.2

Key insights

1. Sentiment in the German VC market dropped significantly in the final quarter of 2025, to -32.4 points.p.1
2. Investor sentiment was only slightly above the five-year low at the end of 2022.p.1
3. Expectations plunged by 38.9 points to -27.4 points, a disproportionately strong change versus the situation assessment.p.1
4. Fundraising sentiment dropped by 28.7 points to -34.2 points but was significantly better than in 2023.p.2
5. The ECB has kept interest rates on hold since the most recent key interest rate reduction of June 2025.p.2
6. More favourable entry valuations mean more pressure on portfolio valuations.p.2