2026 Global Insurance Outlook (Deloitte Switzerland)

Summary

• Globally, P&C premium growth is expected to decline through 2026, driven by heightened competition and diminishing rate momentum.p.4
• Return on equity in advanced European markets is expected to rise from 9.1% in 2024 to 11.6% in 2025.p.4
• In the United States, the combined ratio is expected to worsen from 97.2% in 2024 to 98.5% in 2025 and 99% in 2026.p.4
• US investment yields are expected to rise slightly, from 3.9% in 2024 to 4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.p.5
• Tariffs are expected to raise claims costs for auto and homeowners insurers and drive up demand for trade credit insurance.p.5

Key insights

1. Insurers are entering an era of considerable uncertainty, from economic and geopolitical volatility to more frequent and severe catastrophic events.p.3
2. Emphasis on technology modernization has shifted to executing real AI use cases at scale and strengthening data foundations.p.3
3. Margins are likely to deteriorate in both personal and commercial lines due to trade policy uncertainty and supply chain disruptions.p.4
4. US underwriting performance was the strongest in over a decade in 2024.p.4
5. Broker consolidation is pressuring carrier negotiating power, and large corporates are increasingly self-insuring through captives.p.5