VC/PE Barometer Survey Q4 2025 (European Investment Fund)

Summary

• A total of 787 VC and PE mid-market fund managers contributed their insights to the Q4 2025 barometer survey.p.2
• The current fundraising environment remains challenging, with a net balance of -41% of respondents, though expectations stand at 15%.p.3
• Expectations for exit conditions in Q4 2025 improved to a net balance of 21%, up 23 p.p. compared to Q3 2025.p.3
• Access to deal flow volume and quality is the top driver for cross-border investments, cited by 67% of respondents.p.4
• Limited access to local networks is the main challenge for cross-border active fund managers, identified by 40% of respondents.p.5
• Harmonisation of legal and regulatory frameworks across EU member states is cited by 70% of respondents as the primary policy measure to facilitate cross-border investments.p.6

Key insights

1. Net sentiment regarding current market conditions improved in Q4 2025 across fundraising, exit opportunities, valuations, new investments, and deal flow compared to Q3 2025.p.3
2. European VC fundraising in 2025 faces a significant year-on-year drop estimated between 24% and 60% depending on the source.p.3
3. Among tech-focused investors, 85% engage in some form of cross-border investment.p.4
4. Of the fund managers planning to alter their geographical focus within two years, 38% intend to expand on a pan-European level.p.4
5. For fund managers with an exclusively domestic focus, lack of local market expertise or familiarity is the strongest deterring factor at 52%.p.5
6. Geographic distance represents the main post-investment difficulty, with 37% citing monitoring and advising over long distances or time zones.p.5
7. To manage local market knowledge and due diligence abroad, 63% of investors choose to co-invest with a local partner.p.6
8. Only 16% of fund managers typically establish a local office in the target investment country.p.6