Growth Equity Update, November 2026 (Edition 56) (Rothschild & Co)

Summary

• Global quantum computing revenues are about $1bn in 2026, with McKinsey forecasting $4bn by 2028 and BCG c$170bn by 2040.p.1
• European quantum private rounds were worth $2.3bn year to date in 2026 and $3.7bn across 2025 and the first nine months of 2026.p.2
• The four major hyperscalers are expected to spend c$770bn in 2026, up from $413bn in 2025.p.13
• There were 69 raises of $100m+ in the US and Canada in October, totalling $28.5bn.p.16
• NVIDIA estimates that its cumulative investment in Europe's technology ecosystem has reached $10bn.p.9
• Gartner expects that by 2030 over 50% of quantum computing startups will be forced out of business.p.8
• Tenstorrent raised $1.5bn in a Series E at a $6.2bn post-money valuation, and Flapping Airplanes raised $1bn at a $6bn valuation.p.15

Key insights

1. Most quantum processor roadmaps see quantum advantage arriving between 2027-30.p.4
2. Fault tolerant quantum computing at commercial scale is unlikely to arise before 2030-2034.p.12
3. Quantum companies raised c.$22.8bn of equity between January 2024 and October 2026.p.5
4. CoreWeave's capex is around $37bn in 2026 and is expected to rise to c$48bn in 2027.p.13
5. OpenAI has postponed its planned IPO until 2027.p.13
6. Legora's $550m Series E valued the company at $8.8bn post money, up from $5.6bn in the previous round.p.17
7. Oratomic raised a $475m Series B to build a neutral-atom quantum computer.p.16
8. The Bank of England's November vote was 8-1 for a 25bps rate rise.p.14