Financial Stability Report 2026 (AFM)

Summary

• Global growth is now forecast at around 2.9-3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3-3.4% before the escalation of the Middle East conflict.p.7
• In March, the S&P 500 fell by around 5%, the STOXX 600 by approximately 8% and the AEX by approximately 5%.p.13
• Debt issuance for AI investments has almost doubled over two years to over USD 100 billion.p.15
• Assets under management in Dutch investment funds fell slightly in 2025 to EUR 931 billion.p.22
• Globally, retail investor participation in private credit has risen from 0% in 2010 to approximately 13% in 2025.p.28

Key insights

1. Eurozone growth is forecast at around 1.1% for 2026.p.7
2. Inflation forecasts for the G20 have been revised up to around 4%.p.7
3. Dutch gas stocks were less than 6% full at the end of March.p.16
4. Global repo markets have USD 16 trillion in outstanding transactions, of which 58% is in the United States.p.18
5. Daily outstanding repo transactions involving Dutch parties amount to approximately EUR 550 billion.p.18
6. Net assets subject to a liquidity mismatch amount to approximately EUR 19 billion, less than 3% of total fund assets.p.23
7. Dutch pension funds had total assets of more than EUR 1,900 billion at the end of 2025.p.22
8. Approximately EUR 1.3 billion in retail investor capital is invested in Dutch private credit funds.p.28
9. A quarter of asset managers using AI have not drawn up a policy to regulate AI use by employees.p.27