Europe 2026 Economic Outlook: Europe's Economic Resilience Could Spark a Resurgence (Procredit Bank)

Summary

• Economic growth for 2026 is expected at about 1.3 percent for the European Union, 1.1 percent for the Euro area and 1.2 percent for the United Kingdom.p.1
• Visa's Spending Momentum Index hovered around the neutral 100 mark for most of the year, indicating no broad-based surge in spending.p.2
• In the U.K., the gross household savings rate nearly doubled from its pre-pandemic level in 2019.p.3
• About 30 percent of British consumers and over 20 percent in France report using generative AI tools.p.5
• More than half of consumers aged 18–35 have engaged with generative AI in some form.p.5
• The Netherlands household savings rate was 17 percent in 2019 and 19 percent in 2025.p.8

Key insights

1. Households remain cautious, prioritizing savings over discretionary spending despite solid labour markets and rising wages.p.1
2. Digital payments and e-commerce still have room to expand in many European markets.p.2
3. Wage growth has been outpacing consumption growth, so many consumers are pocketing pay increases instead of spending them.p.3
4. The U.K. embraced e-commerce earlier than continental peers, leaving a digital gap and catch-up opportunity in Germany, France and Italy.p.4
5. AI is becoming a key factor in how consumers discover and choose products, while also offering powerful tools to combat fraud.p.5
6. Forrester projects global online retail sales to grow 8.9% annually, reaching $6.8 trillion in 2028.p.7
7. Index values above 100 indicate broad-based net acceleration in economic momentum, while values below 100 indicate contraction on an annual basis.p.9