EU Agricultural Outlook 2024-2035 (European Commission)

Summary

• The OECD-FAO outlook underpinning the report depicts a 7% increase in calorie intake in middle-income countries and a 4% increase in low-income countries.p.5
• From 2010 to 2020 the number of EU farms fell by 24.8% to 9.1 million farms, while EU agricultural land declined by 2.2%.p.12
• EU real GDP is projected to grow by 1% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, converging to an annual increase of 1.4% in the medium term.p.15
• In 2021, 64% of available protein in EU food was of animal origin and 36% plant-based, with total per capita meat consumption projected to decrease by 0.3 kg by 2035.p.19
• Nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture are projected to decrease by 4% and methane emissions by 8% between 2017 and 2035.p.21
• EU agricultural and forest land is projected to remain relatively stable at 323.2 million ha in 2035, with arable land slightly declining by 1.5%.p.25

Key insights

1. Approximately 60-70 % of EU soils are unhealthy, driven by market failures, weak regulations and unsustainable practices.p.10
2. The largest relative farm declines between 2010 and 2020 were in Bulgaria (-64%) and Hungary (-59%).p.12
3. The highest percentage of undernourished population is in Asia (56%), followed by Africa (37%) and Latin America (6%).p.13
4. Brent crude oil prices are projected to be above USD 105 per barrel in nominal terms in the medium term, constant at USD 82 per barrel in 2024 real terms.p.16
5. The stress-test scenario assumes EU sunflower and soya bean yields improve towards a 20-40% increase in 2035.p.18
6. Total EU nitrogen surplus is projected to decrease by 14%, or 11% per hectare.p.21