2026 European Macroeconomic Report (European Commission)

Summary

• US effective import tariff rates rose from 2.4% in 2024 to around 17.9% by October 2025.p.11
• EU government debt-to-GDP declined to about 81.9% in 2024 and is projected to reach 84.9% in 2027 (91.3% for the euro area).p.15
• The euro nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 7.3% from February to October 2025.p.14
• The EU employment rate reached a record 76.1% in 2025-Q1.p.13
• The EU has trade agreements with 76 countries and 46% of its trade takes place under preferential terms.p.23
• The Commission proposal for the 2028-34 MFF assigns an envelope of EUR 451 billion to competitiveness, research and innovation.p.24
• The euro's share is about 20% in global foreign exchange reserves, and it invoices around 59% of euro area exports.p.25

Key insights

1. Volume of total imports from China was up 12.1% year on year in the first 8 months of 2025.p.12
2. Global merchandise trade expanded by 4.5% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, versus 2.3% in 2024.p.11
3. China's total exports grew by 8.6% year on year in 2025-H1.p.11
4. The US population has increased by roughly 20% since 2000, compared with 5% in the EU and 8% in the euro area.p.18
5. The euro real effective exchange rate appreciated by 6.8% over the February-August period.p.14
6. The euro accounts for about 25% of foreign currency-denominated debt.p.25
7. Euro invoicing is 51.8% for euro area imports.p.25