2026 Private Markets Outlook (Franklin Templeton Institute)

Summary

• The secondary market is poised to reach US$200 billion in transactions this year, according to Mizuho Greenhill data.p.8
• Since 2015, secondary transaction volume has grown fivefold.p.8
• Single-asset continuation vehicles account for 40% of GP-led volume, and their volume has grown sixfold since 2018, surpassing US$30 billion in 2024.p.10
• Private equity distributions have declined from about 20% per year before 2021 to closer to 10%.p.7
• An estimated US$2.6 trillion in real estate debt is expected to require refinancing between 2026 and 2029.p.13
• According to a 2025 Preqin survey, roughly 45% of institutional respondents say they are overweight private equity.p.6

Key insights

1. The secondary market is projected to reach US$200 billion in 2025, comprising US$105 billion in the first half and an estimated US$95 billion in the second half.p.9
2. Nearly 70% of 2025's single-asset continuation vehicle transactions have come from first-time issuers.p.10
3. Annual private equity payout rates now hover closer to 10%, reflecting the slowdown in exits.p.7
4. Commercial real estate debt is the authors' favorite private credit investment, due to the wall of debt that needs to refinance in the next several years.p.4
5. Valuations of office and retail properties could drop by as much as 40% from peak levels, according to Morgan Stanley reports.p.13
6. Roughly 30% of institutional respondents report overweight positions in real estate, private debt and infrastructure.p.6