2026 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook (Deloitte)

Summary

• Deloitte forecasts business investment to grow by about 3% in 2026, slightly lower than 3.6% in 2025, while the unemployment rate could rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.5%.p.4
• The Consumer Price Index may hover at roughly 3.2% in 2026, and the Federal Reserve may drop interest rates to 3.125% by the end of 2026.p.4
• Loan growth could pick up as rates fall, reversing the 5.6% drop in the volume of commercial and industrial loans in the first half of the year.p.5
• US banks remain well-capitalized, with the average common equity tier 1 ratio above 14% over the last five years and excess capital of over $250 billion among the top 20 US banks through the first half of 2025.p.6
• European banks have outperformed many global peers, with a 45% year-to-date increase in share-price returns through August 2025.p.6
• Banks submitted a record 2.6 million suspicious activity reports, an average of 7,100 filings per day.p.16

Key insights

1. The July 2025 GENIUS Act created a legislative framework for payment stablecoins in the United States, opening the door for traditional banks to be involved in tokenized digital assets.p.7
2. Proposed changes to the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio could reduce aggregate capital requirements for large banks to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, down from the current range of 5% to 6%.p.6
3. While the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest, nonissuers can offer rewards, potentially spurring demand.p.8
4. By July 2026, federal banking regulators will likely establish rules under the GENIUS Act.p.9
5. A review of the top 40 US banks reveals predominantly reactive, siloed AI efforts that yield inconsistent value.p.10
6. Agentic AI, meaning autonomous agents able to take initiative and execute actions, is possibly the most critical frontier for banks.p.12
7. Tokenized deposits remain liabilities of banks, subject to the same capital management and regulatory oversight, and could be a counterstrategy to the impact of stablecoins on deposit funding.p.7
8. Banks are likely to face a surge in bad actors exploiting AI, especially gen AI, as financial crime escalates in scale, speed and sophistication.p.16