West Africa's Energy and Chemicals Sector Moves Up the Value Chain (Deloitte)

Summary

• West Africa's oil and gas sector is worth roughly US$80 billion and has been growing at a compound annual rate of about 6.5%.p.3
• Nigeria accounts for close to 60% of the regional oil and gas value and Ghana for around 20%.p.3
• Nigeria produced about 1.64 million barrels a day through 2025 on proven reserves of roughly 37.5 billion barrels of oil and 210 trillion cubic feet of gas.p.3
• The Dangote Petroleum Refinery cost around US$20 billion to build and has a capacity of around 650,000 barrels a day.p.6
• Reported theft losses in Nigeria fell from more than 100,000 barrels a day in 2023 to under 50,000 in 2024.p.7
• Reform under the Petroleum Industry Act has helped unlock asset sales to indigenous operators and field development plans worth close to US$40 billion.p.8
• The West African cost premium was put at 40% to 50% above comparable jurisdictions, partly traceable to local-content rules.p.5

Key insights

1. Côte d'Ivoire's Baleine field is estimated to hold up to 2.5 billion barrels of oil and 3.3 trillion cubic feet of associated gas reserves.p.3
2. Namibia's Venus discovery alone is estimated at two to three billion barrels.p.3
3. Energy security has moved ahead of the energy transition in the minds of governments and investors, with natural gas gaining the most from this recalibration.p.4
4. Funding and cost competitiveness continue to throttle the sector's growth, while infrastructure and regulatory collaboration show real progress.p.4
5. Angola is working toward 445,000 barrels a day of national refining capacity through its Cabinda refinery.p.6
6. The Dangote refinery can meet the refined-product needs of Nigeria's 230 million people and hold large volumes back for export.p.6
7. Larger, better-governed operators attract the lion's share of available capital, so independents' opportunity lies in gas, infrastructure and domestic value addition.p.7
8. The upside gathers around gas monetisation, local refining, domestic industrialisation and regional energy integration.p.10