Trends - Artificial Intelligence (BOND)

Summary

• ChatGPT reached 800 million weekly active users, an 8x increase in seventeen months.p.56
• The Big Six USA technology companies spent $212 billion in CapEx, up 63%.p.5
• ChatGPT hit 365 billion annual searches in 2 years versus Google's 11 years, 5.5x faster.p.21
• Spotify reported 678 million monthly active users and 268 million subscribers in Q1:25.p.48
• USA AI IT job postings are up 448% while non-AI IT job postings are down 9%.p.7

Key insights

1. Algorithmic improvements have driven +200% annual growth in effective compute over nine years.p.17
2. Performance of leading AI supercomputers has grown +150% per year.p.18
3. The number of powerful new AI models has grown +167% per year over four years.p.19
4. ChatGPT took 5 days to secure 1 million users, the fastest ramp ever for a standalone product.p.26
5. Developers in NVIDIA's ecosystem grew 6x to 6 million over seven years.p.39
6. More than 7 million developers are building with Gemini, five times more than a year earlier.p.40
7. 73% of responses from a leading AI system were mistaken as human by testers in a Turing test.p.43
8. The generally-accepted benchmark for human performance on MMLU is 89.8%.p.42
9. Years to 50% US household adoption fell from 20 years in the PC era to 6 years in the mobile internet era.p.60