Short Term Outlook for Arable Crop, Meat and Dairy Markets (European Commission)

Summary

• EU usable cereal production in 2011/2012 is expected to remain largely unchanged at around 275 million tonnes, as an area decrease of 1.1% is met by a 1.0% increase in yields.p.1
• Oilseed usable production is expected to be curbed by 2.2% to about 28 million tonnes.p.1
• Total EU milk production is forecast to reach 151 million tonnes in 2011 and remain similar in 2012.p.1
• The 2010/2011 marketing year cut EU cereal stocks by 17 million tonnes, with usable production of 275.2 million tonnes and net exports of 18.5 million tonnes.p.2
• Crude oil is expected to rise in 2011 to around 102 USD/barrel (+35% against 2010) and to 107 USD/barrel in 2012.p.2
• EU cereal exports are expected to decline considerably to 21.8 million tonnes, with ending stocks decreasing by 6.5 million tonnes.p.3
• EU pigmeat exports may fall slightly in 2012, by 4.3%.p.4

Key insights

1. EU agricultural markets are strongly affected by the macroeconomic outlook, with cereal markets tending to remain relatively tight and stocks expected to fall further.p.1
2. The area cultivated under cereals in 2011/2012 is forecast to decrease by 1.1% to reach 55.6 million ha.p.3
3. Maize area is projected to increase by 6.8% to 8.7 million ha, while soft wheat area is unchanged at 23.1 million ha.p.3
4. Total domestic cereal use is expected to be slightly curbed to 271.3 million tonnes, of which 166.6 million tonnes for animal feed and 9.1 million tonnes for bioethanol.p.3
5. Skimmed Milk Powder production is forecast to increase by 9% in 2011 and by a further 4% in 2012.p.5
6. Total butter and butteroil production is forecast to increase by 1.2% in 2011 and by a further 1% in 2012.p.5
7. Total EU milk production is forecast to reach almost 150.8 million tonnes in 2011 and consolidate at 151 million tonnes in 2012.p.4
8. EU meat exports could exceed 2010 volumes by 13.4% in 2011 based on trade data until the end of August 2011.p.4