M&A Outlook 2025: Expectations High (Boston Consulting Group)

Summary

• BCG's M&A Sentiment Index stands at 77, up from a low of 66 in December 2022 but well below its ten-year average of 100.§1
• Global M&A value in 2024 was $2.1 trillion, 3% higher than 2023 and below the ten-year average of $3.0 trillion.§3
• The number of deals fell to 32,000, down from 34,200 in 2023.§3
• Sentiment in the Americas jumped from 81 in August 2024 to 91 in January 2025.§2
• Sentiment in Europe rose from 76 in November 2024 to 84 in January 2025.§2
• European M&A totaled $483 billion, a 16% increase versus 2023.§3
• Deals involving North American targets totaled $1.2 trillion, with US targets worth $1.1 trillion accounting for 52% of global M&A.§3

Key insights

1. The sentiment index has declined from 88 in October 2024 despite improved business confidence.§1
2. Asia-Pacific sentiment remains low, with an index value of 45.§2
3. Deal value in the UK increased 120% and in France 45%, while Germany fell 41%.§3
4. Deal value in Africa increased by 44% to $13 billion.§3
5. Asia-Pacific deal value was $391 billion in 2024, a 2% decline from 2023.§3
6. Megadeals are inherently more risky, but some companies have developed best practices to deliver higher value consistently.§4