Winning Codes for Retail 2035: Capturing the ₹200Tn Prize (Boston Consulting Group)

Summary

• India recorded GDP growth of 8% in 2025 and is on track to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030.p.6
• Strong fundamentals are expected to drive the Indian retail market to nearly ₹200Tn over the next decade.p.6
• Consumption grew 3-4% in the first quarter of 2025 and 7-8% in the second quarter, with double digit growth in the final leg of 2025.p.5
• Nearly 42% of US urban consumers have already used GenAI.p.6
• India maintained the highest consumption growth among the top five economies, with a 2015-25 consumption CAGR of 10.6%.p.13

Key insights

1. Consumption and experience-led segments have outpaced discretionary, upgrade-driven categories.p.5
2. Organized retail has historically outperformed underlying categories, but its headway over category growth has reduced drastically, particularly in offline channels.p.6
3. Winning retailers anchor strategy around a clearly defined focus cohort and make explicit trade-offs.p.6
4. Agentic commerce has moved from experimentation to reality.p.6
5. The report was jointly developed by BCG and the Retailers Association of India.p.5
6. AI adoption at scale will shift roles dramatically, with fewer roles having a wider scope.p.7