Long-term Investment Outlook 2024: Pathways to Post-growth (Triodos Bank)

Summary

• The average individual worldwide is estimated to be 1.5 times wealthier than in 2000, but global poverty is rising and sustainable development progress has stalled.p.4
• Economic activity is driving humanity past 6 out of 9 planetary boundaries, demonstrating that continuous economic growth creates severe ecological crises.p.4
• Neoclassical growth models project structural growth to remain near stagnant over 2023–2038, reaching 0.2% annually in the eurozone and 0.1% in Japan.p.7
• Europe currently operates at an average ecological footprint of 3.08 times Earth's annual regenerative capacity.p.9
• To stay within planetary boundaries by 2038, European economies must achieve a 68% reduction in their ecological footprint.p.13
• The leisure shift pathway evaluates a 20% reduction in working hours per capita as a method to lower production demands and improve human wellbeing.p.12
• Triodos Investment Management reported EUR 5.5 billion in assets under management as of 31 December 2022.p.20

Key insights

1. In advanced economies, additional economic growth no longer correlates strongly with improvements in human happiness or general wellbeing.p.6
2. Technological innovation and green growth strategies have failed to demonstrate an absolute decoupling between economic growth and resource consumption.p.9
3. Economy-wide rebound effects regularly exceed 50%, offsetting environmental efficiency gains through increased total consumption.p.9
4. Aligning taxation with environmental externalities and wealth rather than income reduces government budget reliance on persistent economic expansion.p.14
5. A macro-level post-growth transition requires resource-intensive sectors to contract while essential service and care sectors expand.p.14
6. A post-growth financial system requires rolling back financialization, curtailing excess leverage, and putting social and ecological impact before financial risk and return.p.15