Forecast Assessment 2025-2035: Executive Summary (RTE)

Summary

• France still imports almost 60 % of the final energy it consumes.p.4
• The energy bill amounts to about €50 to 70 billion each year, and peaked at nearly €120 billion during the energy crisis.p.4
• The state strategy would cut the share of imported fossil energy in final consumption from about 60 % today to 30-35 % by 2035.p.4
• In the rapid decarbonisation trajectory, electricity consumption would rise by 135 TWh in ten years.p.5
• Fossil fuel imports would fall by about 500 TWh, 40 % of it due to electrification alone.p.5
• System costs could be reduced by up to €3 billion per year with unchanged production and consumption targets.p.7
• Electricity consumption fell by about 30 TWh (-6 %) after the energy crisis.p.10

Key insights

1. Greenhouse gas emissions would fall by half compared with 1990 under the state strategy.p.4
2. Electricity needs in 2035 are adjusted down by about 35 TWh compared with the 2023 analysis.p.5
3. New solar and onshore and offshore wind installations reached nearly 7 GW cumulatively in 2024.p.8
4. Renewable output growth rose from an average of 3 TWh/year in 2011-2015 to 4 TWh/year in 2016-2020.p.8
5. About 20 TWh of electricity are needed to replace 5 % of fossil fuels with synthetic fuels for aviation and shipping.p.9