Electricity System Outlook for Winter 2025-2026 (RTE)

Summary

• Electricity consumption remains structurally low, about 6 % below 2014-2019 levels, and the low-carbon share of the electricity mix is close to 95 %.p.4
• Consumption was stable in 2024 at around 450 TWh, a very slight increase of 0.7 % over 2023.p.5
• French nuclear output rose from 279 TWh in 2022 to 320 TWh in 2023 and 362 TWh in 2024.p.6
• RTE forecasts average nuclear availability of 54 GW between December and January, with a maximum of around 57 GW in early January 2026.p.7
• Installed capacity is projected to increase by about 6 GW for solar and just under 1 GW for onshore wind in 2025.p.8
• The thermal fleet has 12.2 GW of gas plants, 1.8 GW of coal plants and 1.4 GW of oil turbines available.p.8
• Demand response capacities are estimated at 3.7 GW.p.9

Key insights

1. A peak of more than 100 GW, as observed in 2012, would only occur in a very extreme cold wave (1 chance in 50).p.6
2. Nuclear availability reached a maximum of 56 GW in early January, a level not seen since 2019.p.7
3. EDF raised its 2025 nuclear production forecast range to 365 TWh-375 TWh.p.7
4. The Yeu and Noirmoutier offshore wind farm of 488 MW will bring total French offshore wind capacity to nearly 2 GW.p.8
5. Gas storage filling is close to 75 % at the beginning of December.p.8