Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 (IEA)

Summary

• The combined global market value for clean energy technologies has grown 20% on average per year over the past decade, to reach nearly USD 1.2 trillion in 2025.p.15
• Their market value doubles to around USD 2 trillion in 2035 in the Current Policies Scenario and reaches almost USD 3 trillion in the Stated Policies Scenario.p.15
• Battery prices have fallen by 75% over the past decade, and around 80% of global solar PV and wind generation now occurs at lower levelised costs than coal or gas.p.16
• In the STEPS, global net trade in these technologies more than doubles from USD 290 billion in 2025 to USD 620 billion by 2035.p.18
• China's EV exports are worth an estimated USD 50 billion in 2025, and emerging economies now represent nearly 40% of them.p.18
• China accounts for 60-85% of production capacity for key supply chains, and each month of halted battery exports would cost an estimated USD 17 billion of output.p.19
• The combined EU and US share of global clean technology manufacturing investment rises from less than 25% in 2024 to more than 35% on average during 2031-2035.p.20

Key insights

1. Electric cars are by far the largest clean energy technology market in 2035, accounting for around three-quarters of total market value in all scenarios.p.15
2. Market value for near-zero emissions steel, cement, aluminium and ammonia reaches USD 5 billion in the CPS and USD 20 billion in the STEPS in 2035.p.16
3. New near-zero emissions steel capacity announced since 2020 totals 105 Mt, but only 5% has reached FID.p.17
4. China's net exports are projected to grow to USD 375 billion in 2035.p.18
5. For batteries, higher manufacturing efficiency accounts for over 40% of the cost difference between China and Europe.p.20
6. Upstream solar PV manufacturing energy and labour costs account for 65% of the cost gap with Europe, and wind blade production for 75%.p.20
7. Producing EU solar PV modules with imported North African wafers could cost almost 20% less than a fully EU-made module.p.21
8. Chinese EVs are projected to make up around half of total EV sales on average in Central and South American countries by 2035 in the STEPS.p.18