Powering Asia's Energy Transition: The Strategic Case for Thorium (Quest Ventures)

Summary

• Electricity demand in Southeast Asia is projected to grow by 4% annually until 2035, surpassing 2,000 TWh.p.7
• Coal and gas account for nearly 80% of power generation in Southeast Asia as of 2023.p.7
• Thorium is approximately three times more abundant than Uranium in the Earth's crust.p.9
• ThorCon's TMSR-500 is a 500 MWe molten salt reactor with an estimated capital cost of USD 1.1 billion, planned for Kelasa Island in Indonesia.p.10
• Newly built nuclear plants are projected at an LCOE of USD 40 to 80/MWh, while advanced Thorium MSRs are estimated at as low as USD 45/MWh.p.12
• Gigawatt-scale nuclear plants often require USD 6 to 9 billion in upfront capital, while modular SMRs can be installed within 2 to 4 years.p.17
• Key risks include technology uncertainty, with many designs at the experimental or pre-commercial stage, and a lack of dedicated regulatory frameworks.p.19

Key insights

1. Total energy demand in developing Asia is expected to increase by more than 40% by 2050.p.7
2. India possesses over one million tonnes of Thorium, accounting for 25% to 30% of global Thorium reserves.p.15
3. Indonesia's National Nuclear Energy Agency reports approximately 137,000 tonnes of recoverable Thorium.p.15
4. Thorium SMRs are modular and mid-sized (10 to 300 MWe per unit), compared with 1 to 1.5 GW for conventional reactors.p.11
5. A 500 MW SMR may require just 4 to 10 hectares of land, while an equivalent solar PV installation could need 400 to 4,000 hectares.p.12
6. SMRs often achieve capacity factors typically between 90 to 95%, while solar and wind generally stay under 40%.p.13
7. Renewables coupled with battery storage often have storage-inclusive LCOEs exceeding USD 90 to 120/MWh.p.12
8. Molten salt reactors operate at ambient pressure and use passive safety systems such as freeze plugs.p.14
9. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment encountered over 200 operational interruptions due to corrosion and control system instability.p.19