Dynamics and Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Bank Credit to the Private Sector in Mali: Empirical Evidence (International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics)

Summary

• In 2015, banks held more than 90% of the financial assets in Mali, highlighting the private sector's strong reliance on the banking system.p.3
• SMEs represented between 80% and 95% of businesses surveyed in the WAEMU region in 2016.p.3
• The ARDL bounds test yields an F-statistic of 5,9593, establishing a stable long-term relationship between bank credit and macroeconomic determinants.p.18
• The error correction term is estimated at -0,4066, reflecting an annual return to long-term equilibrium of approximately 41%.p.19
• The ARDL model demonstrates a high explanatory power with an R-squared coefficient of determination of 0,9227.p.17

Key insights

1. The bounds test confirms a stable long-run cointegrating relationship between credit to the private sector and its macroeconomic drivers in Mali.p.18
2. The error correction parameter of -0,4066 indicates that equilibrium disequilibrium is fully resolved in a little under 2,5 years.p.19
3. Lagged real GDP growth exerts a small short-run negative impact of -0,0078 on domestic private credit expansion.p.19