Venture Capital Update Monitor, Q4 2025 Trends (J.P. Morgan)

Summary

• Venture capital deployment over the past year was close to the 2021 peak, while deal counts were roughly 30% below.p.1
• Full-year GDP growth of roughly 2% aligned with J.P. Morgan's original forecast.p.1
• US VC-backed IPO volumes reached $16.8 billion in 2025, up roughly 110% from the prior year, per PitchBook.p.2
• 62%, 44% and 42% of business leaders plan to implement process automation, predictive analytics and market intelligence, respectively.p.2
• The proportion of businesses citing AI adoption as a significant hurdle rose from 8% in December 2024 to 18% by December 2025.p.2

Key insights

1. AI remains the central theme, with startups in the sector attracting a substantial share of funding and investor attention.p.1
2. Outside of AI, a sense of scarcity persisted throughout 2025, with a continued decline in follow-on rounds and longer fundraising cycles.p.1
3. US VC-backed IPO volumes of $16.8 billion in 2025 were in line with pre-pandemic annual averages.p.2
4. The proportion of businesses citing AI adoption as a significant hurdle more than doubled over the past year, from 8% to 18%.p.2
5. Process automation is planned by 62% of business leaders, ahead of predictive analytics at 44% and market intelligence at 42%.p.2