Trade Confidence Index Mid-Year 2026: Five Trends Shaping the Future of Canada's Trade Resilience (EDC Investments)

Summary

• EDC's Trade Confidence Index reached 71.7 at mid-year, up two points since year-end 2025 and slightly below the historical average of 72.4.p.4
• Manufacturing and agriculture, fisheries and forestry account for 41% of direct exporters and 47% of the value of Canadian exports.p.5
• Most Canadian exporters (81%) are active in the U.S., and 64% of those report a moderate-to-critical dependency on U.S. sales.p.11
• 32% of businesses that export to the U.S. report a decline in U.S. orders over the past six months.p.12
• Before July 1, 62% of exporters expected a renewed CUSMA deal to benefit their business; afterwards positive expectations fell to 36%.p.13
• 72% of exporters are planning to enter new markets in the next two years, up from 65% at year-end 2025.p.18

Key insights

1. Exporters active in the U.S. and other markets score 72.7 on trade confidence, versus 69.5 for U.S.-only exporters.p.6
2. One in three Canadian exporters invests abroad, and the U.S. leads as the top market for investment.p.9
3. In response to tariffs, exporters are increasing Canadian sales (29%) and sourcing locally (22%).p.12
4. The share of exporters expecting CUSMA negotiations to hurt their business rose from 8% to 26%.p.13
5. Domestic sales and domestic economic conditions accounted for three-quarters of the overall increase in the TCI.p.16
6. 35% of exporters will need financing to support diversification and 47% expect challenging financing conditions to persist.p.18