The Effect of Technical and Fundamental Analysis on Stock Returns of Coal Subsector Companies in Indonesia (PENG Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen)

Summary

• The study covers 24 coal subsector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (120 observations) over 2021–2025.p.1
• Coal recorded the largest price decline among energy commodities in 2023 (48.32%, from US$258.90 to US$133.80 per ton).p.2
• The average price of Australian coal fell from US$384.17 per ton in 2022 to US$188.15, US$143.55 and US$112.44 in 2023–2025.p.2
• Mean RSI14 is 47.62889, mean ROE is 0.216160 and mean PER is 19.35300.p.9
• The regression has an R-squared of 0.030368 and the F-statistic is not significant.p.10
• ROE has a positive coefficient of 1.016576 with a probability of 0.0948, not significant at the 5% level.p.13

Key insights

1. Neither the technical indicators (MA, RSI) nor the fundamental indicators (ROE, PER) have a significant partial effect on stock returns at the 5% level.p.1
2. The 2025 average Australian coal price was about 21.7% lower than in 2024.p.2
3. RSI14 has a positive coefficient of 0.003955 with a probability of 0.5690, so the hypothesis is not supported.p.12
4. PER has a positive coefficient of 0.002700 with a probability of 0.4323 and is not significant.p.14
5. Coal producers are largely price takers, so their earnings follow the coal price cycle.p.14
6. The control variables SIZE (p = 0.3104) and DER (p = 0.9848) are also not significant.p.16
7. Indicators measured at year-end do not precede the annual return, which may weaken the relationship that can be detected.p.17