The AI Value Gap (Roland Berger)

Summary

• Almost 90 percent of companies report that AI returns fall short of investment levels.p.2
• Roland Berger's AI Lab surveyed more than 200 top executives in December 2025, and only around ten percent consistently capture significant value.p.2
• While 37 percent of organizations reach production within nine months, only 31 percent achieve financial breakeven in the same timeframe.p.6
• Stalled firms make up 39 percent of the sample and Observers 49 percent.p.10
• Among organizations with more than 5,000 employees, almost 80 percent are in the Stalled group.p.12
• 63 percent of companies still rely on one-time pre-post analysis or informal gut feelings, while only 25 percent use continuous ROI modeling.p.16

Key insights

1. Just 14 percent of surveyed firms consistently reach breakeven on time.p.6
2. 62 percent of Industrializers consistently hit breakeven targets on time, versus only nine percent of Stalled firms.p.13
3. Business units drive AI investment at 81 percent of Industrializers, compared with 51 percent of Stalled firms and 37 percent of Observers.p.14
4. 91 percent of Industrializers use data-centric approaches such as RAG pipelines.p.18
5. Only 19 percent of Industrializers see governance as a barrier, compared with 56 percent of Stalled companies.p.19
6. The United Kingdom has the highest Stalled rate at 52 percent.p.10
7. 54 percent of technology, media and telecommunications firms fall into the Stalled category, the highest share of any industry.p.10
8. The proportion of firms investing more than USD 50 million annually is set to rise from 6.8 to 8.8 percent.p.5