Global Automotive Supplier Study 2025: Stagformation (Roland Berger)

Summary

• Automotive supplier EBIT margins remain 2 percentage points below pre-Covid levels, with the industry average expected to drop to 4.7% in 2024.p.2
• Global vehicle production dropped to 73 million units in 2020 and is expected to exceed 96 million units in 2030.p.5
• BEVs are projected to account for 41% of global light vehicle sales by 2030, a decrease of 12 points compared with forecasts from December 2023.p.6
• Over 40% of the 25 largest automotive suppliers are rated non-investment grade, versus less than 5% in MedTech or industrials.p.8
• Chinese suppliers recorded the healthiest EBIT margins in 2024 at 5.7%, while European (3.6%) and South Korean (3.4%) suppliers suffered most.p.10
• Global 2025 EBIT analyst forecasts have been cut by 17% since summer 2023, with six consecutive quarters of declining projections.p.12
• Overcapacities are projected to result in a cumulative excess of more than 100 million units between 2020 and 2030.p.13

Key insights

1. Global EBIT margins were 5.3% in 2021 and 2023, a two percentage point loss compared with 2016/17.p.9
2. Semiconductor manufacturers and software companies recorded much higher EBIT margins of 21.6% and 35.5%, respectively.p.9
3. Production in China is projected to rise from 29 million units today to 33 million units by 2030.p.6
4. Tire suppliers led product segments in 2024 with a 7.4% EBIT margin.p.11
5. Headcounts at the top eight global suppliers grew by around 2% to 1.6 million annually between 2016 and 2023 despite flat volumes.p.12
6. Interest payments reduced EBIT by more than 20% in 2023 and 2024 to generate pre-tax earnings.p.8
7. Short-term BEV production forecasts for 2025 show a drop from 4.2 million to 2.9 million units in the EU and from 11.5 million to 10.5 million units in China.p.15
8. Production volumes of the top 10 best-selling cars are projected to fall to 672,000 in 2027 from 800,000 in 2018.p.15