Slimming the Fossil Mammoth: Financing Defossilisation, from Supply Chains to End Uses (Zenodo)

Summary

• The fossil fuel industry emits 2.7 billion tonnes of CO₂ to extract, process, transport and refine its products, more than aviation and shipping combined.p.1
• Fossil carbon is converted into CO₂ at a rate of nearly 38 billion tonnes a year.p.1
• The model keeps 36.15 Gt of the 39.63 Gt fossil CO₂ inventory, divided into five intervention families.p.2
• The Pact Fund, based on a $3/tCO₂ levy, would raise $110–115 billion per year.p.8
• Stockholm Exergi is building a plant to capture 800,000 tonnes of biogenic CO₂ a year.p.9

Key insights

1. Gas emits about 56 kgCO₂ per GJ, against 95 for coal.p.4
2. Replacing coal with gas cuts emissions by about 50% for power and 33% for heat, allowing for methane leaks.p.4
3. In emerging economies, 20 to 30 million generator sets emit more than 100 MtCO₂ a year.p.7
4. Data centre emissions could rise from 180 Mt in 2024 to 320 Mt in 2030.p.7
5. 275 vessels with alternative propulsion were ordered in 2025, mostly for LNG and methanol.p.7
6. At $340 a tonne, a removal costs more than twice a fossil return.p.8
7. Nearly 1,000 billion cubic metres of methane equivalent per year could be produced from waste and residues, of which less than 5% is used today.p.9
8. Transport accounts for 8.3 Gt of the modelled emissions.p.2