Global Economic Monitor: Monthly Highlights (World Bank Global Findex)

Summary

• The global composite PMI rose to 54.3 from 53.5 in August, a 40-month high.p.2
• Global goods trade grew 6 percent y/y in July, well above the 2025 annual average of 4.4 percent.p.2
• The input prices subcomponent of the global composite PMI rose to 61.5 in September from 58.9 in August.p.2
• China's GDP growth edged up to 4.5 percent y/y in Q3 from 4.3 percent in Q2, and exports expanded by 36.3 percent y/y in September.p.4
• Spreads on U.S. high-yield corporates and weak-rated EMDEs rose by about 70 and 140 basis points respectively since the beginning of September.p.3
• Government debt in EMDEs surged from less than 40 percent of GDP in 2010 to over 70 percent by 2025.p.5
• Debt-service costs rose from 6 percent of government revenues in 2010 to an estimated 11 percent in 2025.p.5

Key insights

1. The share of low- and middle-income countries in, or at high risk of, debt distress rose from 26 percent in 2015 to about 50 percent in 2026.p.5
2. A 1-percentage-point rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a 24 basis point increase in frontier market spreads, against 6 basis points in emerging markets.p.6
3. EMDE spreads respond roughly twice as strongly to debt increases in countries with a history of debt crises.p.6
4. Long-term bond yields in France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States reached their highest levels in more than a decade since late September.p.3
5. Equity markets remained broadly resilient despite some AI-related declines, especially in Asia.p.3
6. China's producer price inflation reached 5.0 percent y/y in September.p.4