Commodity Markets Outlook: Commodity Prices Set to Increase by 23% in 2026 as Global Shocks Mount (World Bank Global Findex)

Summary

• Commodity prices are projected to increase by 23% in 2026, led by a 32% jump in energy prices.p.9
• Brent oil prices are forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, while oil demand is set to fall 2.5%.p.9
• In 2027, commodity prices are forecast to decline by 7%, with Brent receding to $79 per barrel.p.9
• The metals and minerals price index is projected to rise by 25% in 2026 to a new high.p.15
• In an adverse scenario, Brent would average $105/bbl in 2027.p.16
• Severe food insecurity affected 779 million people in 2025, down from 803 million in 2024.p.18

Key insights

1. Food commodity prices are on track to climb by 10% in 2026, well above the April forecast.p.9
2. Coal prices are on course to climb by 25% in 2026 and then ease by 4% in 2027.p.14
3. Beverage prices are expected to retreat by 24% in 2026 as cocoa and coffee production recover.p.14
4. If conflict and El Niño risks materialize together, food commodity prices would exceed the baseline by 12% in 2027.p.17
5. Global oil production is expected to decline by 5.5 mb/d (5.2%) in 2026.p.22
6. European natural gas prices are slated to jump by almost 60% in 2026.p.22
7. Global observed oil inventories still total about 7.8 billion barrels, but much is not readily usable.p.24
8. Support of $8.7 billion has reached 25 countries, and the World Bank Group can scale up to $80 billion to $100 billion.p.19