Future Outlook for the AOM Market (L.E.K. Consulting)

Summary

• Analysts project over 40% annual growth in AOM sales through 2030.p.1
• Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have a combined equity value exceeding $1 trillion.p.1
• More than 60 distinct drug mechanisms are in early stages of development for obesity.p.2
• U.S. overweight- and obesity-treated patients on branded GLP-1+ treatment are expected to grow from ~1M today to 10M+ in 2030+.p.4

Key insights

1. Since Wegovy's debut, AOM sales have surged nearly tenfold compared with pre-2021 levels.p.1
2. Limited insurance coverage, particularly with Medicare and most non-U.S. payers, has been a significant barrier to AOM growth.p.2
3. Supply constraints have caused intermittent shortages of key doses, even as Novo and Lilly invested in capacity expansion.p.2
4. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are expanding into indications such as heart failure and chronic kidney disease.p.2
5. The AOM landscape is expected to undergo more profound transformation over the next 5-10 years.p.3
6. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly collectively control nearly the entire AOM segment.p.5