Argentina: Back on the Investment Radar (L.E.K. Consulting)

Summary

• The RIGI regime offers 30-year contractual stability, with a minimum investment of US$200 million and an effective seven-to-10-year capital lock-in.p.1
• Inflation fell from 211% in 2023 to 32% in 2025, and GDP grew 4.4% in 2025.p.3
• The IMF approved a US$20 billion funding program and the BCRA signed an exchange-rate stabilization agreement with the U.S. Treasury for up to US$20 billion.p.3
• Net FDI averaged approximately US$10 billion per year from 2018 to 2023, or 1.8% of GDP, versus 3%-4% typical of Brazil and Mexico.p.4
• Net FDI turned negative, at minus US$1.5 billion, in the first 11 months of 2025.p.4
• The stated target is US$10 billion in net reserves by December 2026.p.5

Key insights

1. For RIGI-eligible projects, investing now is worthwhile, while for other sectors the advice is to monitor BCRA reserves and the 2027 electoral outcome first.p.2
2. Inflation reached 95% in 2022 and then 211% in 2023.p.2
3. Milei's first month included a 50% devaluation of the Argentine peso.p.3
4. HSBC sold its operation to Banco Galicia and Itaú was absorbed by Macro as multinationals renegotiated or exited.p.4
5. In 2018, Argentine assets lost approximately 50% in dollar terms from peak to trough.p.7
6. A reasonable downside benchmark for partial post-2027 reversal is 30%-40% multiple compression in consumer, healthcare and services.p.7
7. Argentina's capital markets and M&A exit channels remain shallow, so exit structures should assume limited liquidity.p.8