Financial Stability Report 50 (OeNB)

Summary

• Austria's economy emerged from seven quarters of recession during which real GDP contracted by 2.8%, with GDP growth expected at 0.3% in 2025.p.6
• Consolidated total assets of the Austrian banking sector rose by EUR 25 billion to EUR 1,290 billion in H1 2025.p.7
• Operating income fell by approximately 6% year on year in H1 2025, mostly because of a one-off effect in the CESEE business.p.7
• Foreign exposures accounted for approximately 44% of total assets by mid-2025.p.7
• Roughly 2.7% of outstanding loans were subject to forbearance as of mid-2025, close to the historical peak of 3.3%.p.10
• The liquidity coverage ratio reached 176% on a consolidated basis at mid-2025, well above the 100% regulatory minimum.p.13
• In the adverse stress test scenario, the aggregate CET1 ratio declines by 4.7 percentage points, landing at 13.0% at the end of 2027.p.15

Key insights

1. The saving rate has surged to 11.7%, reflecting consumer hesitancy.p.6
2. Inflation is projected to rise to 3.5% in Austria in 2025.p.6
3. The EU simplification initiative aims to reduce administrative costs for all businesses by at least 25% and by at least 35% for SMEs by 2029, saving EUR 37.5 billion.p.8
4. Residential real estate prices in Austria have decreased by 5% in nominal terms from their peak in 2022.p.11
5. A systemic risk buffer of 1% for CRE loans came into effect in July 2025.p.12
6. Basel III finalization starts in 2025 and takes full effect by 2033.p.13
7. Banks increased CET1 capital by approximately EUR 8 billion over the past 12 months.p.8