Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 - Executive Summary (BloombergNEF)

Summary

• Electric vehicles are set to account for 27% of all passenger vehicles sold globally this year, up from under 5% six years ago.p.3
• BNEF expects over 23 million passenger EV sales this year, up 11% from 2025.p.4
• Under the Economic Transition Scenario, EVs reach 52% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2035 and 66% by 2040.p.8
• Passenger EV sales in Turkey more than doubled from 108,000 in 2024 to 238,000 in 2025, with 22% of all cars sold being electric.p.5
• The grid will require over $800 billion of investment globally to accommodate electric vehicles by 2040, and over $635 billion is needed for the charging network from 2025 to 2040.p.12
• EV adoption and efficiency displaced 3.2 million barrels a day of road fuel use in 2025, rising to almost 26m b/d by 2040.p.13
• The manufacturing cost premium of BEV powertrains averages around 3% in China, roughly 10% in Europe and 25% in the US.p.6

Key insights

1. Nearly all EVs sold in Vietnam in 2025 (175,000 out of 179,000) came from the domestic automaker VinFast.p.5
2. Some 96% and 88% of total EV sales in Brazil and Thailand in 2025, respectively, came from Chinese brands.p.5
3. BNEF increased its stationary storage battery demand outlook by 27% for 2025 to 2035 compared with last year's view.p.10
4. Waymo's vehicles reached a run-rate of nearly 110,000 kilometers per year in December 2025.p.11
5. Robotaxis reach 15.5 million units by 2040, nearly 1% of the global passenger vehicle fleet.p.11
6. US passenger EV adoption falls to 57% by 2040, compared to 71% in the previous outlook.p.8
7. Electric trucks reach about 17% of global sales in 2030, with almost 45% of sales electric in China.p.9