Arbitration Trends in 2026 (Freshfields)

Summary

• Defense spending in the European Union reached €343 billion in 2024 and was projected to hit €381 billion in 2025, up 63 percent since 2020.p.14
• In the United Kingdom, annual defense spending increased by 30.2 percent over the past decade, reaching £60.2 billion in 2024/2025.p.14
• Government investment in space is rising, with EU investment reaching a record €122 billion in 2024.p.15
• By 2040, demand is projected to be about six times higher for lithium, four times higher for graphite and twice as high for cobalt compared to today.p.20
• Venezuela has over 50 investment arbitration claims and an estimated $20-30 billion in outstanding award liabilities.p.29
• The Freshfields team has secured over $10 billion in arbitral awards in Venezuelan matters.p.31
• Data center power needs are projected to double by 2030.p.33

Key insights

1. The global landscape of armed conflict is the most complex and crowded since the Second World War.p.5
2. In 2025, Russian investors threatened or started arbitrations against European countries for freezing assets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.p.6
3. In 2025, eight G20 members adopted legislation designed to address potential security threats linked to foreign investments.p.18
4. Indonesia has banned the export of unprocessed nickel, Mexico has nationalized its lithium sector and Zimbabwe has banned raw lithium exports.p.20
5. The Netherlands, Germany and Spain have resorted to German courts to halt investor-state arbitration they consider contrary to EU law.p.21
6. A US Executive Order in January 2026 placed Venezuelan oil revenues under US control.p.29
7. Military expenditure in the United States approached $1 trillion in 2024.p.14
8. Tax-related issues are increasingly at the forefront of both investor-state and contractual disputes, with cases tracked for 2021-2025.p.25