AI, Megadeals, and the Making of a Concentrated Venture Market (PitchBook / NVCA)

Summary

• US venture deal value surged in 2025, reaching $250 billion through Q3.p.1
• The 10 largest deals accounted for 38.9% of the total capital invested, with just four deals totaling $77.5 billion.p.1
• AI contributed 65% of deal value in the US.p.1
• Funds of $500 million or more now account for nearly 58.7% of dry powder, up from 39.9% a decade ago.p.1
• The total market value of US VC-backed companies has reached $8.4 trillion, with 51% held in unicorns.p.3
• AI companies accounted for 51.8% of unicorn deal count and 83.2% of unicorn deal value through Q3 2025.p.7

Key insights

1. Deals of $10 billion, $13 billion, $14.8 billion, and $40 billion accounted for 31% of total deal value.p.3
2. The 6.7% of deals completed at the venture growth stage account for 45% of total deal value.p.3
3. Unicorn deals accounted for 56.8% of total deal value, and deals worth $1 billion or more alone represent 42.1%.p.3
4. Andreessen Horowitz is preparing a $10 billion fund, and Lightspeed Venture Partners recently raised $9 billion in new funds.p.5
5. The total value of US unicorns exceeds $4 trillion, with AI representing more than $1.5 trillion of that.p.7
6. Funding for early-stage AI remains significant: 46.5% of early-stage deals and 41.4% of deal value go into AI companies.p.7
7. As of the end of Q1 2025, the Bay Area accounted for 44% of the available dry powder, with New York holding 17%.p.9
8. Bay Area companies created 40.1% of total US VC-backed exit value as of Q3 2025.p.9