Transaction Trends Q3 2026: M&A Market Softens While Deal Appetite Persists (EY Swiss Fintech / Banking Barometer)
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EY Swiss Fintech / Banking BarometerSummary
- The Norwegian M&A market softened in Q3 2026, with 234 announced transactions, down from 276 in Q2.p.3
- LTM deal volume ended at 1,034 transactions, still up 9% from the same period last year.p.3
- AM&M remained the most active industry with 69 transactions, followed by Consumer with 56.p.3
- Private equity was involved in around half (50%) of announced transactions in Q3 2026.p.3
- AP Møller Holding agreed to acquire Ocean Yield from KKR for c. USD 3,000m, the largest deal of the quarter.p.7
- Q3 2026 VDR activations totalled 117, up 11% YoY.p.12
Key insights
- Large-cap deals gained momentum, with four transactions above USD 1bn in each quarter of 2026, up from two per quarter in H2 2025.p.3
- Norwegian software targets fell to 6 vs. 24 in Q3 2025, likely reflecting the AI-driven repricing of SaaS.p.5
- Norwegian targets made up 65% of deals in Q3 2026, down from 80% in Q2.p.9
- Norwegian buyers accounted for 71% of deals in Q3 2026, driven by a sharp rise in acquisitions abroad (73 vs. 41 in Q2).p.9
- Five companies were admitted to trading during Q3, down from ten in Q2.p.11
- The OBX Index increased by 7.9% during the quarter, lifting YTD gains to 23.3%.p.11
- Q3 2026 was the strongest third quarter on record for Nordic M&A, with 879 transactions.p.13
- Vår Energi made a public offer for BlueNord at an EV of USD 2,216m, the largest public offer of the quarter.p.7
- Bitdeer secured a USD 4.7bn, 16-year lease for its 121 MW AI campus in Tydal.p.6
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